The end of an affair? - the world order declared dead

On Friday (February 23, 2026), the editor-in-chief of The Economist, Zanny Minton Beddoes, declared the current, now already dubbed old, world order to be dead. This seems to be the gist of what many observers distilled from the gathering of world leaders in Davos. Leading the charge at Davos against the old and favoring the new was Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. According to him, everyone should recognize this as fact, embrace it, move on from the old to the new, and not be nostalgic about it.

Now, what has prompted this idea that the world order has changed? The answer is simple: the abhorrent behavior of U.S. President Donald Trump. In particular, his most recent insistence that America should own Greenland. More generally, the claim that European countries, in most respects, are worthless. Europe is militarily a freeloader, not enhancing U.S. security; demographically, it has too many useless, non-white immigrants; economically, it is overregulated, has no growth, and politically, it is woke. According to Trump, NATO is nothing more than what the U.S. military brings to the table. So why continue the engagement with NATO and its members? The U.S. president claims Europe is an unfaithful, sagging gold digger and wants a divorce. Many seem willing to give it to him. Carney even seems eager. But is this wise?

There is no question that the return of Donald Trump to the presidency of the world's most powerful nation is, to put it diplomatically, problematic for both the U.S. itself and the rest of the world. It is something we will have to live with and manage for the next three years. Unless Trump dies or is somehow beyond doubt physically or mentally incapable of being president, he will remain in power. Although Democrats are likely to win a majority in the House and possibly improve their number of senators later this year, there will be no impeachment of Trump. The two-thirds majority required for this in the Senate will not materialize. But even if somehow Trump would not make it to the end of his term in January 2029, his replacement will be Vice President J.D. Vance. This may at best be a marginal improvement, but it could also make things worse. In any case, it will not significantly change the current anti-European climate surrounding the presidency. For that to change, we either need a Democratic president or a decent Republican one - yes, decent Republicans still exist. Considering the consistent net negative rating of Trump's performance since his inauguration last year, the next president will be a Democrat if that party can come up with a credible and moderate centrist candidate, preferably one with military and foreign policy experience. Then fruitful U.S. -European cooperation at the top can resume. And we need this!

We need this because the European policy agenda in the Davos new world order, as Carney points out, should be the same as it was. We will continue to need to promote democratic values, multilateral cooperation, collective security, and so on but now without, or even against, America. Are Europeans, currently still used to giving way on most things (including Ukraine!) to American Daddy, suddenly able to rise to the occasion? Highly questionable. Sure, America's (now former?) allies are in the process of improving their military capabilities. Europe is or will be ready to deal with a conventional attack by Russia's military on the Baltics if that day ever comes. Considering the terrible performance of Russia's military in Ukraine (with every respect for Ukraine's heroic defenders!), I would think the Kremlin is not keen to give a repeat performance of its incompetence. However, such a significant act by Europe will only come when push comes to shove, when an external actor forces Europe's NATO members to defend one of its own. But can we, besides this best-case/worst-case scenario that forces Europe into action, expect decisive European force on the world stage?

For all its donations and moral support, Europe has left Ukraine dangling for four years now. If nothing changes on the battlefield, Ukraine - whose valiant people share our democratic values, who desire cooperation (preferably EU and NATO membership), and who are exactly the sort of people we need to partner with in this Davos new world order - will be forced to hand over a fifth of its country to Russia. All this thanks to Putin, Trump, and the absence of decisive help to Ukraine from Europe. Russia a blatantly non-democratic, non-cooperative country, is exactly the sort of rogue state we will need to oppose successfully this time, according to Carney, without America. Another, even more problematic actor on the world stage now and in the future than Russia is China. When it comes to shaping a new geopolitical reality, China will be far more influential than incompetent Russia and a far tougher nut to crack. Are we Europeans going to be able to handle that by ourselves without the U.S. ? No way. Those in the U.S. not overcome by MAGA madness recognize that for cracking this particular nut, the U.S. also needs Europe.

For now, when it comes to the transatlantic relationship, we need to bide our time until January 2029, when the era of Trump, Vance, and MAGA more likely than not comes to an end. In the meantime, Europeans need to focus on containing the damage caused by Trump and associates while at the same time increasing and strengthening our contacts and cooperation with those in the U.S. who are not drunk on brazen grandstanding but continue to be grounded in reality. Fortunately, these Americans can still be found outside Trump's immediate vicinity and are more likely than not to be back in power in 2029. In the interim Europe must not act like the spurned lover toward America. Today, just as after World War II, there is nothing better to be had than a strong transatlantic relationship. We continue to need our combined political, military and economic power to keep democracy safe in the world from those who do harm to it. Let us, by all means, strengthen our European power while we take a short time-out in our relationship with the U.S. - separate bedrooms for now, but not moving out - so we can renew our vows in 2029.